19 Mart 2022’de Delaware, Rehoboth Beach’teki restoranlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015fe al\u0131m tabelalar\u0131 as\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Stefanie Reynolds | AFP | Getty Resimleri<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Covid-19’un patlak vermesinden bu yana, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor ve enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak ekonomistler, bu e\u011filimin nihayet bu y\u0131l yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n d\u00f6rt bir yan\u0131ndaki merkez bankalar\u0131, y\u00fckselen enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 agresif bir \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131, ancak genel olarak i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131 inatla s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD istihdam raporu, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki son \u00e7alkant\u0131ya ve yava\u015flayan ekonomiye ra\u011fmen Nisan ay\u0131nda durumun b\u00f6yle oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam ayl\u0131k bazda 253 bin artarken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 1969’dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiye yans\u0131d\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun da inat\u00e7\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla birlikte ekonomistler, Federal Rezerv, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere Bankas\u0131 gibi kurumlar\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ne zaman ask\u0131ya alabilecekleri ve nihayetinde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tarifeleri indirebilecekleri konusunda b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumdalar. .<\/p>\n
ABD’de Federal Rezerv ge\u00e7en hafta faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdurabilece\u011finin sinyalini verdi, ancak piyasalar gelen verilerle merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131na gerek olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. \u0130\u015f bo\u015fluklar\u0131 Mart ay\u0131nda neredeyse iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte Moody’s ge\u00e7en hafta, G-20’nin (Yirmiler Grubu) geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerindeki i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc arz\/talep fark\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l muhtemelen daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flama nedeniyle yava\u015flamas\u0131 nedeniyle i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki bask\u0131lar\u0131 hafifletece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. ko\u015fullar ve ekonomik yava\u015flama Emek talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2022’nin ortalar\u0131nda, pandeminin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedarik zinciri darbo\u011fazlar\u0131, k\u0131tl\u0131klar hafifledik\u00e7e ve talep yeniden canland\u0131k\u00e7a perakendeciler ve \u00fcreticiler i\u00e7in mal ve malzeme fazlas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Charles Schwab’\u0131n k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ba\u015f stratejisti Jeffrey Kleintop, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n gecikmeli etkileri devreye girdi\u011finde, 2023’\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda benzer bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f bekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u201cKazan\u00e7 duyurular\u0131na ili\u015fkin kurumsal duyurular ve hissedar sunumlar\u0131, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme (‘k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme’, ‘i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar’, ‘k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme’, ‘izin verilen’, ‘k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme’ ve ‘k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme’ gibi terimler dahil) bahsinde artan bir e\u011filim oldu\u011funu ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Kleintop’a g\u00f6re, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131ndan bahsedilmesindeki azalma e\u011filimi (“i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131”, “i\u015fe alamama”, “i\u015fe alma zorlu\u011fu”, “bo\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131 doldurma zorlu\u011fu” ve “s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc eksikli\u011fi” gibi ifadeler dahil)” Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bir raporda.<\/p>\n
Charles Schwab taraf\u0131ndan toplanan veriler, 2021’in ortas\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD kurumsal kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
“K\u0131tl\u0131ktan Fazla Arza”<\/h3>\n
Kleintop ayr\u0131ca, daha s\u0131k\u0131 bor\u00e7 verme standartlar\u0131n\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir istihdam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne katk\u0131da bulundu\u011funu savundu ve “banka kredilendirme standartlar\u0131 ile istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k ve sezgisel bir anahtar ba\u011flant\u0131ya” i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
“ABD ve Avrupa’da son zamanlarda banka kredi standartlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n boyutu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan istihdam d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne do\u011fru bir kayma olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor” dedi.<\/p>\n
Moody’s Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne olan talebin d\u00fc\u015fmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ila d\u00f6rt \u00e7eyrekte daha fazla tersine d\u00f6nmenin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fletmeler ve hane halklar\u0131 i\u00e7in artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde i\u015fe al\u0131m yo\u011funlu\u011funu, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 ve ekonomik aktiviteyi azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Moody’s stratejistleri, “Gen\u00e7 i\u015f\u00e7iler aras\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek kat\u0131l\u0131m oranlar\u0131 ve pandemiyi \u00e7evreleyen gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da eksiklikleri azaltacakt\u0131r.” Dedi.<\/p>\n
\u201c65 ya\u015f alt\u0131 gruplar\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oranlar\u0131, G20 (geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler) \u00fclkelerinin \u00e7o\u011funda salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi seviyelere geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc (veya baz\u0131 durumlarda bu seviyeleri a\u015ft\u0131), bu da son iki y\u0131l\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlukla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. i\u015f\u00e7ileri i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na geri \u00e7ekmede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
![\"A\u00e7\u0131k](\"https:\/\/image.cnbcfm.com\/api\/v1\/image\/107234000-16830363441683036341-29273437061-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1683037032&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y\")
Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki i\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, pandemi sonras\u0131 talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131na atfedilen ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki k\u00fcresel ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ortas\u0131nda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n direncinde \u00f6nemli bir fakt\u00f6r olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n
Charles Schwabs Kleintop, hizmet endeksi ile durgunlukta olan imalat PMI aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n her zamankinden daha geni\u015f oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
“Hizmetlerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile imalattaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki rekor k\u0131r\u0131lma, d\u00fczeltilmesi gerekebilecek bir dengesizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor” dedi.<\/p>\n
“Banka s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n gecikmi\u015f etkilerinin daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir etkiye sahip olmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, hizmet ekonomisinin ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla istihdam\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcnden kaynaklan\u0131yor olabilir.”<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 resmindeki bu zay\u0131flama, s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kendi ekonomilerinde enflasyonu destekleyebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini uzun s\u00fcredir dile getiren merkez bankalar\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Kleintop, bunun politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f sergilemesine izin verebilece\u011fini ve bunun hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131na destek sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131ndan arz fazlas\u0131 olana ge\u00e7i\u015f, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu y\u0131l sonuna kadar \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 enflasyon y\u00f6nlendiricilerine kar\u015f\u0131 zafer ilan etme ve agresif oran indirimlerine ba\u015flama konusunda serbest b\u0131rakmaya yetecek kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerlemiyor olabilir.”<\/p>\n
Yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131kma tehlikesi<\/h3>\n
Moody’s stratejistleri, geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerdeki i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l azalaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda hemfikir olsalar da, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u00fcretkenli\u011fini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in anlaml\u0131 bir politika eylemi olmazsa, n\u00fcfus ya\u015flanmas\u0131 bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sorunu olmaya devam ettik\u00e7e bunlar\u0131n tekrarlanabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fcler.<\/p>\n
Derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu, ya\u015flanman\u0131n en geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde mevcut i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnde keskin bir daralmaya yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle G\u00fcney Kore, Almanya ve ABD’nin etkilenece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Moody’s, Covid pandemisinden bu yana ya\u015flanma nedeniyle kaybedilen i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminlerine dayanarak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki daralman\u0131n “\u00f6nemli” olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
![\"Stratejist,](\"https:\/\/image.cnbcfm.com\/api\/v1\/image\/107238035-16836272071683627204-29374916533-1080pnbcnews.jpg?v=1683628289&w=750&h=422&vtcrop=y\")
ABD’de Moody’s, 2019’un son \u00e7eyre\u011finden bug\u00fcne kadar i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oranlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 0,8’lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %70’inden ya\u015flanman\u0131n sorumlu oldu\u011funu tahmin ediyor ve bu da ya\u015flanma nedeniyle yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,4 milyon i\u015f\u00e7inin kayb\u0131n\u0131 temsil ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u201cKat\u0131l\u0131m oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bu ‘demografik bask\u0131’ en \u00e7ok Euro b\u00f6lgesi, Almanya ve Kanada’da belirgindi. Ancak, Fransa, Avustralya, Kore, avro b\u00f6lgesi ve Japonya’daki kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc fakt\u00f6rler ve politikalar, son zamanlardaki demografik bask\u0131lar\u0131 dengeledi.\u201d dedi Moody’s stratejistleri.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri verileri kullanarak belirledikleri telafi edici fakt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar, g\u00f6\u00e7 ve teknoloji ve e\u011fitimdeki geli\u015fmeler vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u201cSonu\u00e7 olarak, g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya \u00fcretkenli\u011fi art\u0131ran yeni teknolojilerin getirilmesini te\u015fvik eden politikalar, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131 zorluklar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve s\u00fcresini belirleyecektir. Moody’s stratejistleri, onlar olmasayd\u0131, i\u015fe al\u0131m zorluklar\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki i\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde geri d\u00f6nmesini beklerdik” dedi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
19 Mart 2022’de Delaware, Rehoboth Beach’teki restoranlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015fe al\u0131m tabelalar\u0131 as\u0131ld\u0131. Stefanie Reynolds | AFP | Getty Resimleri Covid-19’un patlak vermesinden bu yana, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor ve enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak ekonomistler, bu e\u011filimin nihayet bu y\u0131l yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n d\u00f6rt bir yan\u0131ndaki merkez bankalar\u0131, y\u00fckselen enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haberler"],"yoast_head":"\n